读中感：破碎的梦想

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2006-08-21 14:06

在读<破碎的梦想>和<错过的和平>，都是关于1995 年到2002 年间中东和平进程怎么从很有希望到逐渐破灭的。一个是想知道到底之前简要的历史是什么样子，那些地到底该归谁。二是想知道和平进程到底是为什么失败。
<错过的和平>是dennis Ross 写的，他是克林顿政府中东进程协调人。一看名字是个犹太人。他一开始就辩白了一大通，说阿拉伯世界说他是犹太人偏以色列，以色列骂他是自恨的犹太人，叛徒。我看了一点就觉得他的确也显然偏以色列，开头第一章就把和谈失败责任基本都归于阿拉法特不愿意承诺上。不过他的书里有地图又有历史概述，比较好懂，我还是看了几章。他说以色列人，大阿拉伯世界里的人，和巴勒斯坦人对历史的叙述都不一样，分别讲了讲。以色列人的历史版本跟我从我认识的犹太老夫妇那里听到的版本一样，所以还挺真实了描述了他们的观点。犹太人认为，他们的地是上世纪初开始陆续买的。他们勤劳肯干，把买的破地抽水改造，弄的肥了，阿拉伯人嫉妒他们，就开始攻击排挤他们，那时候他们还没组织没武装，被打被杀也还不了手。二战后联合国把这一块划给他们了，成立了国家，所以他们有生存权利，要捍卫这个权力。阿拉伯人认为英国人出卖了他们，说好了起义反抗奥特曼帝国以后这整块阿拉伯土地是独立的，被塞了个以色列进来，以色列就不该存在。然后两边就打。六七十年代的时候，美国没官方支持以色列。(民间犹太人自己送钱不算)。以色列人觉得谁也靠不着，就只能打。他们也是能打，七天战争唰唰唰占了很多地方。他们一开始占地也不是真要地，只不过是用来做谈判筹码，你承认我我就把地还你。但是阿拉伯人死不承认他们，俩边就扛上了。渐渐以色列人也分化了，强硬派觉得阿拉伯人永远不会跟他们和平，就得把地占死了，有一道军事上易于防守的国境线才行，叫铁墙派。
<破碎的梦想>是法国人写的，比较公正，也挺八卦，细节特多。比如阿拉法特跟以色列新政府派来的人第一次见面，请人吃饭，说：“来，别客气，饭菜都是kosher 的，放心吃。”对方刚开吃，他就接著请人：“来，喝点酸奶。”把对方弄的不知所措。还有个事件很武侠小说。以色列派间谍到约旦暗杀哈马斯的一个头，给对方下了毒。为什么用下毒这样传统的手段而不是开枪？我也不知道。但是那俩个间谍也不太灵活，没跑掉，给逮著了。约旦国王气死了。他四十八小时前刚给以色列首相写信，说有跟哈马斯谈判的转机，马上对方就这么撕他的脸。他就去跟以色列首相破口大骂。以色列首相回答说：还没收到信呢。哇，真是没有最无耻只有更无耻。还没完呐。那个哈马斯的头还没死，躺在医院里。他们就跟以色列要解药。(够武侠小说吧！)以色列为了平息对方的怒火，只好把派了个医生带著解药去救人，还放掉了关了很久的一个哈马斯创始人。真是偷鸡不成蚀把米。
然后他们谈判真是紧张激烈，国家元首们都象不讲理的横人，毫无风度，组织混乱，信息不通。动不动，三国元首关小间说话，说着说着崩了，阿拉法特愤然离去。克林顿说着说着也火了，大叫大嚷，说你这样我们没法谈了，气的摔桌子走人出去了。然后过半天，奥而布赖特回来周旋找台阶下。以色列首相内塔尼亚胡也很无耻，动不动威胁：我们这样没法谈了，我要回以色列去了。克林顿和丹尼罗丝就骗他说：巴解已经有你们要他们制定的安全方案了。他就留下谈。又谈了两天，发现没有，又大喊：我不谈了，你们不把安全方案拿出来，我就要回国了。奥而布赖特就过来说：那好吧，你走吧。内塔尼亚胡傻了，待到晚上，自己拐弯，又宣布留下接著谈。

总之，到目前为止，我的感觉是：很果汁。俩边都不是好人。

Jun · Post by **Jun** » 2006-08-21 14:17

For your high-brow book club?

There is too much and all kinds of emotions involved in this sh*t. It's insane.

And what's been going on over there is not at all like Americans think or what's reported in American media, or what's dreamed up by Americans based on Hollywood movies. I heard a very brief report on NPR (BBC?) radio last Friday. Someone was asking this youth in Lebanon. He said his house was destroyed by Israel in the recent battles and Hezbullah has offered his father money ($10,000) to repair/rebuild it. He said people love and support Hezbullah because their leader (can't remember his name) is very popular -- "Every promise he made, he has kept." He gives people money (I wonder where it came from). What does Israel do to win the hearts of Lebanese?

When asked about the possibility of existing with Israel, the young man who supprts Hezbullah said, "Yeah, I have no problem with that. In fact I wanted to visit Israel and work there."

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2006-08-21 14:30

Yeah we unanimously decided to read sth about middle east.

It is funny. I thought the book would be totally depressed. But somehow I felt better as I read on. It helped to see the unfortunate events unfolding one by one and knew the peace process failed for a reason. Terrible as it was, at least it was no longer this mysterious big chunk of mess that I didn't understand.

tiffany · Post by **tiffany** » 2006-08-21 14:37

I am not reading this kind of book.... wait, I am not reading at all!

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2006-08-21 14:45

Jun wrote:When asked about the possibility of existing with Israel, the young man who supprts Hezbullah said, "Yeah, I have no problem with that. In fact I wanted to visit Israel and work there."

He thinks so because he is young. Israel has been there since he was born. Safe reason younger generation in Israel is much less paranoid. But if you read the history of Israel, you will better understand why and how the older generation think. Unfortunately that is generation still in power now.

You are right. American media is very pro-Israel in general. <Shattered Dreams> is written by Charles Enderlin, Middle-East Bureau Chief of the French Public television network, so it is a much more balanced picture.

There is a documentory film of the same title made by Charles Enderlin. If you really don't want to read but still feel interested, maybe you can get it somewhere. It was on French publich television in 2002. But I don't think it is readily available in US. (Can't find it on netflix).

BTW, Anthony Bourdain's Beirut episode is on tonight at 10pm on Travel channel. But someone doesn't watch TV....

helenClaire · Post by **helenClaire** » 2006-08-21 14:59

我觉得，和谈是外交手段，阿拉伯和以色列掌权者真正要的，不是和平。现在有影响力的美国，则evangelist势力强大，推动事态向圣经中预言录的方向发展，更加与和平无关。就算双方理性上想和平，也每每被血海深仇触发的感情冲动占上风。总之大潮流让人幻灭。某年某月谁谁不肯承诺啥啥，在历史长河里不过是小弯小折。
研讨中东局势还真是时髦啊。

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2006-08-21 15:39

嗯，我觉得他们还是都想要的，以色列比阿拉伯世界更想要和平。但是以色列里悲观的一派认为阿拉伯不会跟他们和平，所以只能特别坚决的保卫自己，谁碰我一下我剁掉谁的手，让他们不敢动我，以达到和平。注意是和平不是友好。巴勒斯坦根本没有军事力量抗衡，只能搞恐怖活动。俩家整个一个正反馈系统，冤仇结的海样深。
但是能完全说以色列这么想不对么？也不能。以色列和埃及，和约旦都已经达成了和平。如果当年以色列不能打，早就被灭了。他们相当于从小在街上流浪的孩子，早就已经形成了“拳头打天下”的观念。
我一边看一边觉得，美国政府对以色列的影响力其实没大家想的那么大。首先是，历史上美国政府没有一直支持以色列，艾森豪威儿还逼以色列撤军，以色列不是那么相信美国政府，他们只信自己的拳头。即使是现在，他们也不那么听美国的话，因为他们恨的是巴勒斯坦的恐怖组织，而美国对巴解和那些极端组织没控制力，美国保证以色列安全的话，以色列听来是放P.这就是为什么克林顿政府极力要把和平进程维持下去而没成功。
我觉得这本书挺好看的，活色生香，比高阳的小说还好看。

Jun · Post by **Jun** » 2006-08-21 16:02

美国政府对以色列的影响力其实没大家想的那么大

It's the other way around, my dear. The current influence of Zionist Jews on US government in turn influences US gov's policy in the middle east.

以色列里悲观的一派认为阿拉伯不会跟他们和平，所以只能特别坚决的保卫自己，谁碰我一下我剁掉谁的手，让他们不敢动我，以达到和平。

That's understandable for the generation that survived the Holocaust. Who wouldn't be a radical Hawk if he's witnessed his parents being marched to the gas chamber? So do you think he'd give a shit that he is taking out his fear and hate and violence on people around him who have not actually done anything to him? "We were massacred because we didn't dare to say anything on our death marches in Europe, so NO MORE COMPROMISE! LET'S KILL KILL KILL!" If I were them, I'd probably feel my blood boil too.

That's what I mean by emotional baggage. You can't reason with people in this situation. And terrorism is merely the warfare of the weak -- so powerless militaristically that they have to resort to terrorism. Yet there's too much behind-the-scene forces to keep it going even if most Palestinians are fed up with the whole conflict.

And the irony of the whole shit is that Iran and SYria are making billions on the oil market -- money straight from American drivers' pocket!

tuscany · Post by **tuscany** » 2006-08-21 16:10

我觉得这本书挺好看的，活色生香，比高阳的小说还好看。

我被吸引了。

Knowing，另一本<<错过的和平>>英文名字是什么? Missed peace?

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2006-08-21 16:17

The Missing Peace by Dennis Ross

It is too pro-Israel and too pro Clinton. Which doesn't bother me much, but nevertheless makes it less trustworthy.

tuscany · Post by **tuscany** » 2006-08-21 16:22

Thanks Knowing! I don't mind it being biased either. I am used to it. Just checked it out at my local public library; too bad they don't have it yet, so I submitted a recommendation for them to buy it.

搬家一多书本太累赘，所以从几年前起开始奉行书非借不能读也原则。

火星狗 · Post by **火星狗** » 2006-08-21 16:30

这两本书之所与不那么depressing，大概是因为侧重于描写上层人物的狗咬狗。如果写的是老百姓的personal history，也许会看得人晚上发恶梦。

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2006-08-21 16:49

That's what I mean by emotional baggage. You can't reason with people in this situation.

I agree they have a lot of emotional baggage. Also there was more than Holocaust, Arabs have been fighting Israel since UN's partition plan in 1947. But I don't think Israelis are completely unreasonable people. It is hard to explain in a short article, but reading the book gives me the feeling there is still hope when the time is right. Maybe not now, but someday. Yitzhak Rabin fought all his youth as a soldier, yet he changed his heart and therefore Oslo Accords was made possible. So I think, there is still hope, with the right leader, at a right time.

Jun · Post by **Jun** » 2006-08-21 20:51

But I don't think Israelis are completely unreasonable people. It is hard to explain in a short article, but reading the book gives me the feeling there is still hope when the time is right. Maybe not now, but someday.

Nod nod. I agree. A while ago we had this conversation, in which I said most people on both sides, ie the "silent majority", just want to have a job to go to in the morning and a home to return to at night. Their quibble is neither religious nor absolute. They can live with each other. But they haven't got the guns, the bombs, the money, and the voice. The feelings between these two peoples are both volatile and strangely amendable, perhaps a lot more amendable than the resentment of the Chinese for the Japanese.

Over and over Walter Mosley's book title comes to mind -- Always Outnumbered, Always Outgunned. Of course, it refers to the average people who just want to live a reasonably normal life. A small and seemingly impossible request.

Essentially people want the same thing and have the same predictable behavior. It is this sameness that sometimes leads us down the road to inevitable violence and conflicts.

helenClaire · Post by **helenClaire** » 2006-08-22 8:35

So I think, there is still hope, with the right leader, at a right time.

冲突双方从来都不缺有智慧有远见的理性领导人，他们不是看不透参不破这冤冤相报的愚蠢，而是不得不承认，人脑构造如此，和平的甘美，远远比不上血债血偿带来的原始快感。

哪边孩子从小是被灌输：孩子，我们生活在一个黑暗的年代，你爷你爹你叔你舅你哥都被人家杀了，但，人家不是我们的敌人，我们的梦想仍然是和平？
种瓜得瓜啦。
和平嘛，想是有点想，可惜不是第一重要。一点点风吹草动，最先牺牲掉的就是和平。

Jun · Post by **Jun** » 2006-08-22 9:14

别看现在基督教右派＂领袖＂和政治人士支持以色列叫得凶，那是因为他们想借用以色列克制伊斯兰教。毕竟在他们眼里，第一先要除掉伊斯兰，9/11进一步正面＂他们＂已经跟＂我们＂全面宣战，意识形态上的全球清洗，现在正是好时机呀好时机。（当然啦，伊斯兰教的极端分子也想同样的事，只不过他们现在力衰，想也做不到就是了。大家都是一样的想要千秋万代一统江湖啊。）等到伊斯兰教构不成威胁了，基督教的核心领袖们真会跟犹太人拉手合欢么？真会不拿＂杀害基督＂出来说事么？哈哈。基督教和伊斯兰教之间的斗争早就是几百上千年的事了。阿拉伯人现在急了眼，那是因为势力悬殊，生计拿在人手里呢，吃亏也是难免的。西方就硬了么？从沙特伊朗到印尼都抓着juice of life呢。象Bush，Cheney，Condelizza Rice, 这种人就是这一矛盾的尖锐代表啦，又要喝油，又要跟伊斯兰打架，所以我们现在的烂摊子就是他们的矛盾的结果。不过大家都要油，从中国到日本到印度到西方所有发达国家，利益冲突所在，不是这么搞就是那么搞，僧多粥少，免不了要打架。

water · Post by **water** » 2006-08-22 12:53

knowing列举的事实一看就知道是美国人的版本。我看到的一版本与美国统一版本有诸多分歧。

开始犹太人买地时，巴勒斯坦人并没有怎么样，可是后来持续大规模的犹他移民是巴勒斯坦人没有想到也不情愿的，有什么国家和地区对这样大规模的一个种族的移民没有限制？恐怕只有英国人慷他人之慨才做得出；后来英国人迫于巴勒斯坦人的抗议开始限制犹太人移民数量，犹太人的反击和现在的巴勒斯坦人没有两样，就是搞恐怖活动，三天两头的人体炸药包针对英国平民。

最后英国人焦头烂额，加上二站后独立运动，他们决定放弃对巴勒斯坦的统治，这时联合国通过了１８１号决议案，这个决议案完全违背了联合国的基本宗旨，一个国家和地区的分裂和统一，应该由当地居民投票决定，可是如果这样一来显然是阿拉伯人占多数。而且当时对土地的分割也完全不公平，一半以上的土地给了只占人口三分之一可能还不到的犹太人。

这段历史看来看去，一个民族的生存，真是自己一定要有一个强有力的政权，巴勒斯坦人开始把希望寄托在埃及纳赛尔，约旦国王身上，后来又投靠萨达姆，现在的巴以组织指望美国，这些国家一有利益冲突就第一个出卖巴勒斯坦人的利益；再就是，什么时候都是强权在说话。是不是好人有什么要紧，在生存和利益面前，谁有手腕有后台就是强者。

wuliaotou · Post by **wuliaotou** » 2006-08-22 15:03

突然发现JUN和我听同一个电台，我就在每天上班下班听个20分钟，这两天一直在说中国的经济发展，从昨天的中国无数个小市场说到今天在广东？某生产全世界2/3纽扣的小县城，很有亲切感。

Jun · Post by **Jun** » 2006-08-24 20:25

BTW, Anthony Bourdain's Beirut episode is on tonight at 10pm on Travel channel. But someone doesn't watch TV....

So ... how was it? Did the program touch on the conflict?

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2006-08-24 23:02

没有太多。一开始十分钟是他照常的路子，跟当地导游青年跑到路边小馆子吃当地食物，我喜欢他对食物毫不snobbish 的态度，坐在光板凳上吃的喷香。(当然很snobbish 的食物我也喜欢，只要真的好吃就成。)然后俩人吃了午饭出来在路上闲扯，那青年导游口若悬河的吹嘘，说咱贝鲁特人民，生活都是有今天没明天的享乐主意者，咱什么没见过，什么都不怕。背景就听见放鞭炮似的扒拉扒拉响，大厨还没反应过来，那个青年好像马上就明白过来了。接著就是青年晃着旗帜庆祝，街上水马车龙的路过，一片胜利的海洋。那个导游有种很难堪的表情，按大厨的话说，就是：“真是的，非挑这个当口在外国人电视上丢脸。”后来他们就被车子拉到个很美很美，在山顶全海景的高级宾馆里住著，天天泡在很美的游泳池里，对著很美的海景，直到美国海军派了个船把大家拖回去了。到底是搞吃的出身，专业意识一点也不强烈，也没趁机出去抢新闻...
我的观后感，我一直以为Hezbullah 只控制shiitae 区的少数，看来他们在黎巴嫩比这要受欢迎多了。