[分享]Why Does AIG matter?

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-16 9:31

这篇文章讲的东西稍微复杂一些，但是非常重要。当时说到为什么FED 不能不救熊四叹时提到过CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP ，如果熊四叹破产要TRIGGER 很多CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP 合约，卖合约的公司可能又要倒下一批，然后就跟多米诺骨牌一样。现在的情况，CDO 是第一块牌，AIG 就是被砸到第二块牌，然后有可能波及更多公司，那些公司再倒几个。。。。。

http://www.businessweek.com/investing/i ... ig_pr.html

The need for AIG to make good on all of its credit default obligations it the main reason the insurer is facing a mad dash to raise cash. It’s likely that firm’s like Merrill will give AIG some time to raise the necessary capital. Squeezing AIG for cash it doesn’t have will only force the insurer’s trading partners to take write-downs and losses on the credit protection it has purchased.

In many ways, this is what happened when tiny bond insurer ACA Capital was downgraded by S&P to junk status last December. The thinly capitalized firm, which insured nearly $30 billion in subprime backed CDOs, couldn’t make good on its capital obligations. The firm’s failure to pay up resulted in a series of big CDO write-downs by Merrill, CIBC and other banks. It looks like history may be repeating itself. But this time the damage will be much worse.

tiffany · Post by **tiffany** » 2008-09-16 9:37

妈妈米呀！
听说aig被允许自己借给自己若干比，老天保佑够了。

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-16 9:38

I think government will bail out AIG. they don't really have much of a choice here.

karen · Post by **karen** » 2008-09-16 9:50

小K你能解释下credit dafault swap是啥意思？我查了wiki，看不懂哇。

Jun · Post by **Jun** » 2008-09-16 9:54

所谓government bail out，也不过是转嫁损失罢了，难道最后会无人买单？

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-16 10:13

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP的功能就是保险。但是STRUCTURE 的时候故意不写成保险，好逃避一切保险的法规。（我的个人感觉，反正啥事儿一沾SWAP 都是为了逃避，不是避税就是避法规）
比如你买了６b的房贷债卷，觉得不太放心－－万一好多房主不付帐呢？这时候你看了看周围，好象AIG 比较靠谱，就跟AIG 说，这样吧，我给你3m （50 basis points), 如果超过X％房主不付账，我的债券突然不值钱了，你得赔我钱。 AIG 看了看，觉的超过X％房主不付帐的纪律稍小于０。５％，就说，中。卖了足够多这种保险，AIG 存下了一笔款子，万一有一个房贷债卷里包括的房主们突然纷纷不付帐了，可以用来赔偿。

但是现在全美房市都很差，大家都不付帐，AIG 就突然欠了很多公司很多钱，以前收来的钱根本不够。怎么办呢？要没有人搭救，AIG只有去死了。

如果AIG 死了，你本来还指着它赔给你的钱就没了，６b 的房贷债卷现在可能勉强值个1b半。你也就突然损失了4b半。

karen · Post by **karen** » 2008-09-16 10:30

明白了，多谢讲解。听你这么一说，也觉得这就是买保险呀。逃避了保险的称呼是得了啥好处？我去查查。

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-16 10:35

我具体不知道，跟capital requirement 有关吧。保险业存在的久，regulation 很多的，比如你卖多少保险得保证有一定的资产来支持，不然不是谁都可以出来卖保险然后被CLAIM 时就破产了吗？CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP 都不受这些限制，因为＂法律上＂说它不是保险。还有就是不用报告。

karen · Post by **karen** » 2008-09-16 10:41

噢，那这跟Fannie and Freddie倒了是同个原因，都是钻了法律上的空子手头上capital保留比同行业的要少，外加default机率算得过小，这时拿不出钱来。

stareye · Post by **stareye** » 2008-09-16 11:59

我希望AIG不要倒，我们的房和车都上的他们的保险，他们倒了我还得换保险去。

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-16 12:03

Your insurance is fine. Thanks to strict regulation, the insurance part of their business is very solid. Most likely even if AIG declares bankruptcy, insurance division will be seperated out on its own or be bought. Plus the insurance is backed by the state according to some law somewhere.

sing · Post by **sing** » 2008-09-16 12:05

I think you can't simply say that their "default机率算得过小".

AIG (and all other IBs) definitely considers the risk of default, and usually there is risk system to simulate all kinds of situation. But current situation is probably worse than any person (system) can imagine.

豪情 · Post by 豪情 » 2008-09-16 12:11

How about life insurance policies, especially whole life or VUL?

stareye · Post by **stareye** » 2008-09-16 12:15

Knowing wrote:Your insurance is fine. Thanks to strict regulation, the insurance part of their business is very solid. Most likely even if AIG declares bankruptcy, insurance division will be seperated out on its own or be bought. Plus the insurance is backed by the state according to some law somewhere.

听小K一说，我就放心了

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-16 12:16

that's fine too. They are all insurance products.

豪情 · Post by 豪情 » 2008-09-16 12:28

But they are investment products too, right?

wuliaotou · Post by **wuliaotou** » 2008-09-16 12:57

whole life shoule be ok, it's still insurance, but VUL might be at risky, especially if it guarantee you certain return, i think

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-16 15:38

I think VUL is still a type of insurance, thus should be in their insurance divsion.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/16/news/co ... tm?cnn=yes

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-16 16:21

Treasury Said to Be Considering AIG Conservatorship

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

simonsun · Post by **simonsun** » 2008-09-16 18:18

Fed to Give A.I.G. $85 Billion Loan and Take 80% Stake

In an extraordinary turn, the Federal Reserve agreed Tuesday
to take a nearly 80 percent stake in the troubled giant
insurance company, the American International Group, in
exchange for an $85 billion loan.

camellia · Post by **camellia** » 2008-09-16 20:35

又救了一次，Fed能有多少钱来救?
Barclay's捡了便宜么？

朝露 · Post by 朝露 » 2008-09-16 21:48

那天早上听到新闻，说雷兄弟倒台了，AIG问题大大，我这个消息闭塞人士大吃了一惊，那句话怎么说的，只有更坏，没有最坏，哈

老实讲，我也不知道小K讲的CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP是啥，不过我猜这个credit产品大概还算是保险的范畴，当然这个同寿险不一样，很惭愧我还没去看AIG的架构，但大体上应该是一个独立的法人公司在运作这个产品

如果我猜得没错，大概情况就是：张三从李四买了东西，张三要赊账，李四既不舍得放弃张三这个大阔佬只好让它赊账、又不放心张三给不给钱的事儿，就到保险公司买个保险，付个大笔保费，说张三要是破产了交不出钱来，你得帮它交。

太平年代，张三一般都交钱了，即使有个把张三交不出，保险公司也配得起。但现在战乱纷飞，不小心张三真的破产了，保险公司就要赔钱给李四，太多的张三都交不出钱，保险公司要赔的钱太多，赔赔、赔赔，自己也要破产了，就赔不出李四的钱了，结果李四没钱拿，也就跟着要破产，这个雪球就越滚越大了，牵涉到的人也就越来越多了，更糟的是谁也搞不清楚这张网到底有多大、网上串的到底有多少人

这也大概是美国政府为什么要救AIG的一个原因：本来一团糟，不救还不知道糟成啥样，社会就会不和谐

至于美国银行，嘿嘿，估计还得感谢建行呢，这会子还有余力跑出来捞便宜，只不知选的时机到底如何了

日朗 · Post by 日朗 » 2008-09-16 22:35

MBS,ABS,CDO，让我想起念书时候学的信用证，中国刚开始做国际贸易时一些国企被信用证诈骗了好多钱，而当时有个挣钱的门道就是一些有钱的个人拿着现金把汇票啊信用证啊打折贴现，然后自己到期去银行拿全额。这些和很热的资产证券化衍生物，原理是一样的啊。不过是那些衍生生物包装的复杂而漂亮

97年亚洲金融危机之后金融风险防范和监管很热了一阵，可是到00年左右资产证券化就是讨论的热点了，这次的教训不知道能管用几年

shallow · Post by **shallow** » 2008-09-17 5:44

我觉得用swap, forward的最大好处是这些业务都在表外，是不公布的，可以逃避监管，所以次贷刚开始的时候他们爆20%， 30%，你根本不知道到底多少，因为不用公布。

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-17 8:16

FED 的银行家也挺狠的。我昨天听说是给８５B 的贷款换取８０％的股份，还纳闷贷款怎么能换股份，这怎么算的？今天一听细节，原来，这８５B两年贷款收１１.５％的年息，FED 派人把AIG 管理层通通换掉，还得到８０％的控制权。真是仗着有现钱欺负人，LOAN SHARK 都没FED 毒！
早上还在电视上看到NANCY PELOSI 很傻的跑出来说：我们不能随便把纳税人的钱拿出救大公司，要调查这比钱的机会成本。我听了真想抽她一耳光，给她８５B，我倒要看看她能不能找到１１。５％的投资回报率。

洛洛 · Post by 洛洛 » 2008-09-17 8:26

我外行的问，这11.5%真的会到时候真得能拿出钱吗，可能到时候故技重施，作的帐目上好看而已？

Jun · Post by **Jun** » 2008-09-17 8:27

Uh... what's the likelihood that Feds will actually see this money returned to them? What if AIG dies despite of the 80B infusion?

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-17 8:53

还挺高的。AIG 财产有１TRILLION, 头也换了FED 的人了，剩下的就是大张旗鼓贱卖财产砸锅卖铁的还钱。据说AIG 不是还挺SOLVENT 就是ILLIQUID 么。

Jun · Post by **Jun** » 2008-09-17 9:02

US Treasury just said it's going to issue bills to finance Fed's recent rescue missions. So the chips fall, one by one, one by one...

(If they keep the rate of Treasury bill so low, who will buy them?)

tiffany · Post by **tiffany** » 2008-09-17 9:03

有时侯看着民主党人，觉得他们都不生活在这个世界上⋯⋯

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-17 9:06

Jun wrote: (If they keep the rate of Treasury bill so low, who will buy them?)

you will be surprised. Now that nothing else is safe, treasury bill is the only place to put your money.

Jun · Post by **Jun** » 2008-09-17 9:21

That's precisely how I am feeling right now. The mattress suddenly seem like a nice place...

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-17 9:44

Yeah, mattress sounds pretty good, unless you are chinese or Saudi government, and there is no mattress big enough...

tiffany · Post by **tiffany** » 2008-09-17 9:55

我老研究了一下儿我的退休金，就万把刀，还赔了100多刀！ :BloodyK:

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-17 10:01

从什么时候到什么时候？你要是今年只赔了１％那就是超级强人了！

tiffany · Post by **tiffany** » 2008-09-17 10:05

我上个quater report还是绿的呢，这俩月就红了。

tiffany · Post by **tiffany** » 2008-09-17 10:11

我其实还没开始望退休账户里存钱呢－－－每个月发的工资都不够花呀，看来我老得工作到7老8十，两眼昏花，退休无望了。

花差花差小将军 · Post by **花差花差小将军** » 2008-09-17 10:39

Knowing wrote:还挺高的。AIG 财产有１TRILLION, 头也换了FED 的人了，剩下的就是大张旗鼓贱卖财产砸锅卖铁的还钱。据说AIG 不是还挺SOLVENT 就是ILLIQUID 么。

我看也是，而且fed还能等，等好的价钱好的买家，TNND真够狠毒的

karen · Post by **karen** » 2008-09-17 11:07

Knowing wrote:今天一听细节，原来，这８５B两年贷款收１１.５％的年息，FED 派人把AIG 管理层通通换掉，还得到８０％的控制权。真是仗着有现钱欺负人，LOAN SHARK 都没FED 毒！

11.5%!

This is higher than the 11% interest rate that Citigroup borrowed from Abu Dhabi last year! Granted Citigroup borrowed about a tenth of the money involved here.

I didn't know Fed is such a loan shark.

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-17 11:20

yeah, are you happy now that your tax dollar is working hard?

atiti · Post by **atiti** » 2008-09-17 12:19

我又晕了。这么高的利率，如果是要AIG砸锅卖铁的还，那能保证它之前还有钱四处赔保险吗？FED出手不就是为了防止赔不出保险骨牌效应吗？还是说AIG其实挺肥的，只要有流动资金进来，彻底赔完一圈之后还是有锅可以砸了还利息的？要这么肥的话别的资本家为什么不出手呢？他们手里的现钱也不够么？还是这事儿还不够保险？（那样的话岂不是FED也可能亏？）还是说他们没权，FED只要看着烂帐还清了就可以逼AIG贱卖了，如果需要的话，但是他们不行？

karen · Post by **karen** » 2008-09-17 12:19

Oh, maybe even Jun is somewhat mollified that AIG is getting punished for its untethered greed.

karen · Post by **karen** » 2008-09-17 12:29

这么高的利率，如果是要AIG砸锅卖铁的还，那能保证它之前还有钱四处赔保险吗？FED出手不就是为了防止赔不出保险骨牌效应吗？

I heard on the radio this morning that Fed lent the money to AIG to facillitate an orderly unwind of its assets. AIG will have to sell its units and subsidaries to pay back the loan. I am not sure Fed is interested in keeping AIG intact.

Jun · Post by **Jun** » 2008-09-17 12:30

The only thing I'm thinking about right now is whether the mattress or the freezer is safer for storing cash...

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-17 12:35

A，高利率是为了让他们快点还。
B，现在除了家里放着印钞机的美国政府，还有哪个有钱的大爷谁能一把掏出８６B的现钞？
C，不太保险但是也没办法..早点时候BARCLAYS 想买LEHMAN，南韩银行想买LEHMAN，都是被他们本国证券管理机构给拦住了...

豪情 · Post by 豪情 » 2008-09-17 12:53

C，不太保险但是也没办法..早点时候BARCLAYS 想买LEHMAN，南韩银行想买LEHMAN，都是被他们本国证券管理机构给拦住了...

??为什么要拦?

qinger · Post by **qinger** » 2008-09-17 13:10

我已经晕了。这两天都不敢看401k和mf帐户。

豪情 · Post by 豪情 » 2008-09-17 13:12

今年YTD大家都是负两位数吧.只要不是快退休的都还好. 更担心的是就业市场.

qinger · Post by **qinger** » 2008-09-17 13:24

不是的，少数聪明人去年年底全转到mma上了。
问个弱智问题， FED要救AIG应该是重大利好消息，为什么今天股市狂泻。

Knowing · Post by **Knowing** » 2008-09-17 13:48

豪情 wrote:
C，不太保险但是也没办法..早点时候BARCLAYS 想买LEHMAN，南韩银行想买LEHMAN，都是被他们本国证券管理机构给拦住了...
??为什么要拦?

人家国家证券管理机构觉得花儿街不太靠谱呗。

问个弱智问题， FED要救AIG应该是重大利好消息，为什么今天股市狂泻。

花儿街也觉得花儿街不太靠谱呗。